Reflections on Cityscape Dubai 2009
Posted on 08 October 2009 with no comments from readers
Cityscape Dubai 2009 could have been recast as Cityscape Abu Dhabi 2009, so dominating was the presence of the UAE capital this year where the ’sudden stop syndrome’ that hit Dubai last autumn has not been nearly as dramatic.
Perhaps this is Abu Dhabi’s moment in the sun. Construction projects are proceeding apace and there are far more stalled sites in Dubai.
Boom bust
Yet investors were hardly queuing at the stands with their cheque books like two years ago. There was a polite interest but most Cityscape visitors seemed to be curious onlookers and under-employed local professionals rather than genuine customers.
That left the stage for Abu Dhabi developers, although Sorouh was a notable absentee. Aldar, Tamouh, Tamiyat and Mubadala stands could now show construction in progress and not just models.
Dubai can still draw gasps with its spectacular model of the Meraas Development scheme for Satwa and Jumeirah in a veritable scene from science fiction. But the reality of life is more prosaic: the abandoned second palm island, or largely dormant City of Arabia project with its 90 life-size plastic dinosaurs still warehoused in Japan.
The city of the vision still finds it hard to accept that times have changed and that the money has run out. Completing what has already started will surely take a decade. There is no need of additional projects.
Indeed, with an estimated 40-60,000 units to absorb by the end of next year the Dubai market is going to be in over-supply. Further apartment price falls are widely forecast, although villas might possibly have bottomed out as less have been built.
Foreign visitors
Developers from as far afield as Vladivostok and Paris also hopefully plied their projects to Cityscape Dubai 2009 but there seemed to be little interest. The real estate crisis is pretty much a global phenomenon.
Something more is going to be required to give the real estate sector a lift. Lower mortgage rates would help in the UAE, and a resumption of lending by the moribund Islamic home loan companies Amlak Finance and Tamweel of which news is much awaited.
Yet Cityscape Dubai 2009 did not have the empty halls of the last post-credit crunch event and a hopeful buzz represented something of an improvement. On the other hand, the supply and demand position in Dubai suggests another down leg looks on the cards.
