How could the population of Dubai have grown last year?
Posted on 16 March 2010 with no comments from readers
When statistics appear that are totally out of synch with general opinion there are questions to be asked. What then are we to make of the 7.6 per cent growth in the population of Dubai in 2009 to 1.77 million now claimed by the official Dubai Statistics Center?
Lest we forget 2009 was the year that the biggest contributor to Dubai’s GDP, construction and real estate, crashed in spectacular style. The city is littered with half-built construction projects whose work forces and management have been sent home.
Real estate crash
The once high-profile real estate agents have also packed their bags and returned to their home countries. True the population of the Dubai prison has benefited from both these sectors in the aftermath of the crash. Otherwise it is hard to see where population growth might have come from in 2009.
Perhaps the Dubai Statistics Center could provide us with more of a sectoral breakdown. Have companies in the Jebel Ali Free Zone been adding staff? What about Emirates Airline, although they did have a recruitment freeze for most of the year?
Hotels bringing in people? Possible with new hotels still opening but many more running at lower staffing levels due to a slump in tourism. The Dubai Statistics Centre data shows total hotel guests falling from 1.62 million in the first quarter to 1.54 million in the fourth.
Retail is the only sector that certainly did employ more staff with the opening of several giant shopping malls. Commercial license renewals in Dubai fell from 17,346 in the first quarter to 15,900 by the fourth, although it is hard to see if this represents a net loss or even a gain.
Who else brought people into Dubai in 2009? The Dubai Metro, well yes. Perhaps that also explains what has happened to the city’s once legendary traffic jams that have curiously vanished.
Export slump
But then data published by the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry showed total exports slumping by 16 per cent to $50.5 billion in 2009, the same annual percentage fall recorded by China, the world’s largest exporter, so business was definitely down.
Yet according to the Dubai Statistics Center the number of mobile telephones rose from 2.94 million in the first quarter to 3.05 million in the fourth quarter. Then again mobile phones have become so cheap and just a fashion item that multiple phone ownership is common, and this indicator is not that useful anymore.
All that can be usefully said is that the population growth claim requires some more solid evidence if it is to be accepted as a realistic figure, and any statistical organization ought to be able to back up its figures with reams of unquestionable evidence.
