How long will GCC troops patrol the streets of Bahrain?

The Bahrain Government has taken a huge risk in inviting troops from its neighbors on to its streets to quell unrest between Shia and Sunni Muslims that has threatened to turn into a civil war.

This is like the situation in Northern Ireland in 1969 when British troops were deployed to separate two warring sectarian groups. They ended up staying for almost 30 years as the target for bombs and attacks while the IRA pursued a murdurous bombing campaign on the UK mainland.

Military escalation

Will it be a different scenario in Bahrain? An armed column of 1,000 plus Saudi troops rolled in yesterday and the UAE is sending 500 policemen. The US has told its citizens to leave Bahrain.

Let us hope both sides see sense but adding a military dimension is an escalation and not a solution to the problem. That will only come by painful diplomatic negotiations, possibly over many years and neither side seems really ready to talk right now.

This is a tragedy for Bahrain, and its people do not appear to realize what they are about to lose. The financial sector first moved into Bahrain as exiles from the civil war in Lebanon. With the island state itself now occupied by military forces you can hardly expect banks and financial institutions to stay put.

Protestations from the Bahrain Central Bank that there has been no flight of money may be accurate thus far. But a picture of Bahrain as business friendly with business as ususal is clearly a complete sham. ArabianMoney talked to bankers last week who said their business has been practically at a standstill since the troubles started.

Battle zone

They were in wait-and-see mode. But what message does it send to the global financial community when it sees troops on the streets. This is not reassuring. It is shocking in the extreme.

The financial community does not generally stay around for long in a battle zone, and that is what the financial district became last weekend when the attention of the world was on the Japanese earthquake.

The problem for Bahrain is surely that by calling in the military the streets of Manama may be unsafe for a very long time, unless some totally unexpected breakthrough can be made in bringing the two sides to the negotiating table.