I recall when I was able to purchase another set of money for my monopoly game. I was able to purchase property without limit, and only had to purchase a new set of money ( at a fraction of the value in monopoly money) ” see where I’m goin ??” as Judge Judy says.

No doubt, the folks at GS, JPM, et al have been doing a great job of concealing the massive financial problems in Greece, as well as in the other PIIGs countries. I truly believe that they’ve done a masterful job in playing the shell game with different kinds of derivatives, including CDSs.
I wonder how much they’ve been collecting from these countries in “consulting fees” for their continuously fraudulent activities in the Eurozone.

While successful thusfar, they (GS and JPM, primarily) can not continue to play these shell games forever, and at the end of the day, it’s all gonna come crashing down. As the Ed. suggested, if Greece “gets away with it again”, won’t Ireland and Portugal demand the same special deal?

Question, how likely is this scenario to play out. It makes sense to me.

But Dennis Slothower of Stealth Stock Daily looks at the dollar differently. He wrote on Friday:

“The dollar has only gone up like a rocket just prior to serious market declines. Notice what happened to the S&P 500 Index CME:Index and Options Market: SPX shortly after the dollar began a strong advance in August of 2008. It wasn’t but a few weeks later that the equity market collapsed. The early strengthening of the dollar was merely the canary in the mine that should have signaled a clarion call that the equity market was getting into trouble.

“As it was, the whole financial world was in trouble and not much has changed.

“Is the new advance of the dollar a precursor to a falling equity market, much like we saw in late summer 2008?”

Disconcertingly, Slothower is one of the few advisors who really did anticipate the 2008 Crash.

I can see equities slamming down hard. Anyone else? I know its deep, but the dow 6,500 comes into view. It’s just a number that makes sense (to me) psychologically. What’s your gut tell you? That’s mine.

Being honest about this subject, my reaction comes from the media establishment’s revelation that RE is not recovering. This admission means something. Personally, as much as i like the man, i scoffed at Marc Faber’s -10% call. two months ago Try 50% more to go. Everyone in the so called RE intelligentsia seemed to ignore last years Morgan Stanley report blatantly calling a bottom in 2015, with the shadow inventory accounted for. Being in the dev business for a couple of boom cycles i recognize how these pundits are continually taken in. Actually Reggie got it right, he’s the only visible presence in the blogosphere that calls a spade a spade. I just wish he’d hire a sound tech.

i do not see ben letting the DOW go to 6500…..he will start hinting at -15% of local top…..as early as things start nowdays, we are already in an election year….more important people in the US than bernanke have been shot for less….the FED independant?–nothing is independant.

EU will concede to greece until the bitter end, tho that will come….ultimately the eur failing (hamburg n paris banks bailed out of PIIGS debt by printing the eur) n china real estate crash(REM printed to prop up PboChina)…..japan a bug by then finding its windshield.

the papered over credit expansion finally crashes…..precious metals the only thing to hold(and more) value out of abdication.

@James M:
Slothower makes some very good points about the USD’s advance, but the analogy with 2008 is seriously flawed, primarily because global liquidity (from excessive “money” printing by the US and other nations) is many trillions greater today than it was back then. The FED alone has pumped over $3 trillion into the system. Secondly, the USD’s recent rally was long overdue, after a long, continuous slide.

Regarding Your Guess at a Dow 6500:
While I believe that the Dow will eventually sink to 6500 within a few years, it’s tough to say whether it will sink that far between now and the November 2012 elections; Boatman makes a good point about some of the reasons, but there’s additional forces at play here. My “guess” and it’s only a guess: the Dow will fall to the 6 handle within a few years, but most likely after the November 2012 elections, for reasons cited below.

The Cartel is Struggling Now:
For example, the Power Elite will do everything they can to make sure that the FED/CME/CBOT/JPM/GS/C/B Cartel continue their “shell game” and continue to spin multiple plates on the head of a needle until the 3rd of November 2012 to:
a) prop up the stock markets,
b) keep the bond markets from falling precipitously (via the FED’s unlimited sales of Treasury puts, etc.),
c) prop up Greece & other PIIGS countries via shell games, CDSs, epidural injections,
d) etc., etc.

The $700 Trillion Gorilla in the Room:
But the one thing that they can not control at this point in the charade is the humongous derivatives problem, which is the $700 trillion gorilla in the room. JPM alone holds over $80 trillion in derivatives, as of Dec 2010! (go here for Reggie’s analysis of JPM derivatives: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/step-step-guide-exactly-how-much-derivatives-risk-each-5-big-banks-actually-have-and-how-it-
Without a doubt, JPM’s continued role in “helping” Greece & other PIIGS has added to their total derivatives positions.

Tutorial on Derivatives:
Go here for an in-depth look at the many different types of derivatives that these clowns have issued over the years (e.g. credit default swaps, interest rate swaps, forex swaps, etc.): go here:
http://lcmgroupe.home.comcast.net/~lcmgroupe/2010/Article-Sultans_of_Swap-605T_of_Derivatives.htm

Derivatives are Uncontrollable Now:
This derivatives “problem” is like a bunch of nukes that have been placed in strategic financial centers around the world; admittedly, many of them are in Wall St.

So in summary, if some of these nukes suddenly “go off” (e.g. one in Greece, then another one in Ireland, then another in Pakistan, etc.), the the FED/CME/CBOT/JPM/GS/C/B Cartel would be overwhelmed quickly, and in that situation, the Dow could fall off the cliff, easily hitting the 6 handle.

@ James M:

Actually, Case-Schiller as well as Reggie have both been “right on target” regarding their RE predictions. Case-Shiller is now saying (as of April 2011) that RE is going down another 20% nationwide.

Hi guys, pls excuse the delay rejoining the conversation. Got busy trying to stay on top of trading, big job in this chaos..

Nice remarks Obewon, agree with all of that too. On the RE topic, i’m not following it so closely these days to read Case-Shiller price index in detail, but i read calculated risk almost every day, and pay attention to Core Logic, who just reported a 1.5% drop for March. Personally i’m content with understanding the zen of the situation, if you will (a state) . Having been in the business, and knowing it for what it is. On top of that hands-on base, i’ve read several good and lengthy papers on the subject by economists and actually only found one paper that makes perfect sense to me in all respects. As the editor is not allowing my links for some reason, i’ll skip the link. The bottom line is the USA cannot have an economic recovery without a housing boom, and because they are not going to have one, there is no recovery. This is the first rule of the situation. The next rule is that jobs create a housing boom. We can stop there.

According to Marc Faber, we are in a crackup boom. We are in the first years of a great decline in the standard of living of America. Its going to be ugly. Housing will eventually bottom, but it won’t be in 2012. We are in a period of asset deflation where asset values are being eroded by inflation-theft. Your 300,000 home maybe still be worth $300,000 next month, but what is $300,000 worth. You know my point. That is why we are buying gold.

Aside from the derivatives nukes you have nicely mentioned, which can only crush the western financial system in the end, is the fact that America (and UK, Spain etc) borrowed from the future to create a fake economy based on housing production. The boom fuel was borrowed money, not real wage based economy. Not wages based on sound fundamentals, such as ‘productive works’. They did this for about 20 years. And here we are, with a real structural problem, a multi decade debt binge hangover. You and i both think we know how this is going to end. Apparently so do all the sovereigns who are leaving the club, and rushing to buy gold in hundred ton lots. They seem to know what’s coming. I’m hoping we get another 2 or even 3 years at least before the fireworks really go off, stagflation, war etc. We are in the last bubble i figure.

@ James M:
CR and Core Logic are worthwhile sites to peruse.
After a lot of daily reading, I, too, am content with the Zen of the global financial mess. But our country’s economic “situation” is what it is, and can not easily improve because of major structural deficiencies, and for all of the reasons you cited and more (e.g. the massive fraud and cover-up by Wall St. banks still continue unabated, with no hint of prosecutions by a government that, itself, is corrupt!).

So we who are “informed” know that that the US is living in a “Let’s Pretend” economy, while our government is using the US news media to spread the “US economy is greatly improving.” A good read on this “Let’s Pretend” topic is here:
http://www.businessinsider.com/our-lets-pretend-economy-2011-4

You said you hoped we get “another 2 or 3 years” before it all comes down; I don’t think TPTB can succeed at this manipulation game for that long. On a daily basis, TPTB, together with the Power Elite, continue to manipulate the data on “hot spots” (e.g. Greek debt), issue more derivatives, obtain more bond insurance, prop up the stock market, prop up the bond market, spin their propaganda that all is “OK”, etc. . . . hoping that the next big crash doesn’t happen until after 3 November 2012.

I believe the next big crash will occur prior to November of next year!

@ obewon
“I believe the next big crash will occur prior to November of next year!”

The Fed has the tools to ward off a collapse for some time. (correct?) However, I can see, or maybe feel is a better word, a correction in the markets imminently. Predictions are dangerous, but the technicals look like a breakout to the downside. and something has got to give, prior to June 30. There is too much uncertainty. A controlled dive where the air is let out of the tires to give the market what it wants, a safe correction, might be coming. They can do that by dropping oil sharply, down to say $89, just a guess with gold following, and the markets drop, DOW sheds 900 to 1,500 pts and the USD goes thru its top, all on the same day or three. (Just reading tea leaves of course.) Then we have QE3 and everything reverses, commodities go up, gold takes off, and we go another round.
Do you think Obama is ‘The One’, i have no idea about his future, but there’s always a war presidents guaranteed second term. The deck is already stacked in that direction. Blatantly.

@ James M.:

Enter “Chaos Theory”
Predictions, especially those with a specific time line (e.g. a market crash in October 2011, for example) are almost impossible to make, with any degree of certainty, primarily because there are many, many variables that can have a big impact on the outcome. Added to that is the fact that we live in a complex world where chaos theory reigns (e.g. the butterfly flaps its wings in Greece, and through a complex chain of events, this eventually causes a massive storm on the other side of the earth.

The FED’s Global Reach:
The FED’s so-called “tools” are actually very, very limited; they can print money, and they can raise/ lower interest rates. But the fact that they can pump massive amounts of “money” into foreign countries/ foreign central banks as well as here in the US makes them feel omnipotent. The main reason why Greece has not imploded yet is due to the US FED, and to their agents, JPM and GS. And they secretly “help” Greece because they believe a Greek default will cause a chain reaction (chaos theory again!), resulting in catastrophic failure to the global financial system. And in this case, it is likely that their fears are justified.

Too Many Leaks in the Dike:
So in essence, I believe that in the near future (i.e. at some point within the next 16 months or so), there will suddenly be too many “black swans” that appear simultaneously (e.g. Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain crises, coupled with MENA chaos and a US treasury bond rout), thereby overwhelming the FED and their cohorts at other central banks. It could happen this summer, or in October 2011, or in the spring of 2012.

It will be like the Dutch boy who finds several holes in the dike, and places a finger in each one, deluding himself into believing that all is well… until he sees the 11th hole!

@ obewon
Good comments, nicely explained.

What’s interesting about the ‘too many swans’ idea (which i can see happening) is that we are being conditioned lately to take black swans in stride. Our shock and awe threshold is moving up and hardening.

To give just one example, here it is 2 months since we, Canada, have sent a squadron of fighters to attack Libya at behest of our uppers in NATO (three guesses who), and yet if you picked at random 100 Canucks off the street asking the question, ‘Did you know Canada is at war with Libya?’ 99 would say, “WHAT?!”

Yes folks, we are bombing the village to save it. Pass the popcorn please..