New ash clouds keep London airports closed again

Hopes for resumed air travel between the UK and Gulf States were dashed today as the volcano in Iceland emitting clouds of dust showed signs of new activity. All the London airports remain closed indefinitely, although some European services are now operating.

Some 20 per cent of the Emirates Airline fleet is grounded by the disruptions to flights into and out of European airspace and this is costing the carrier $10 million per day. There is also ongoing chaos for Gulf holidaymakers, some of whom cannot get home and others whose holiday plans are ruined.

Bigger than 9/11

The long-term damage to the local tourism sector is hard to evaluate but could easily be bigger than 9/11. Then hotels emptied for a couple of months and things got back to normal within six months.

However, volcanoes are far less easy to handle than terrorists. There is nothing much that can be done in response. And if previous incidents are any guide eruptions can last months and up to a year.

Nobody from Europe is going to be terribly quick to book a flight in these circumstances, whether for business or pleasure. It is tough luck for Gulf tourism which was the sector showing the most signs of recovery from the real estate crash of last year and its aftermath.

Early next month the local travel industry will convene at the Arabian Travel Market in rather sobering circumstances. Prayers for a cessation of volcanic activity are called for.

Natural disaster

It is not unusual for countries hit by a recession to find themselves dealt a double blow by nature. In Hong Kong post-1997 it was the unpredictable and unexpected SARS health crisis that did the worst damage to the local economy and took house prices down to their lowest levels.

Without aviation the Gulf States are isolated and Europe is the main market served by these aircraft. Not everywhere is affected. Russian airspace remains open and many Gulf tourists come from Russia.

Air links to Asia and North America have also been growing in importance. But this is a major blow to local tourism and aviation and nobody should underestimate its impact.