Claims of UAE population growth in 2009 just incredible

Posted on 30 May 2010 with 1 comment from readers

Whenever national statistics arrive that appear very different from what common sense would dictate it is almost invariably the statistics that are wrong and not common sense.

So what are we to make of the first-ever ‘Report on Economic & Social Dimension 2009′ from the National Bureau of Statistics in the UAE? It says the population of the UAE rose by 125,000 last year to an astonishing 8.19 million.

Incredible but true?

The authors could scarcely believe it themselves, commenting: ‘Despite the global financial crisis, which contributed to the slowdown in economic activity and the associated decline in the demand for labour in various projects throughout the GCC region, there are indications that expatriates continued to arrive in the various emirates’.

What are these ‘indications’? Perhaps the large number of vacant rental properties across the UAE? Perhaps the loss of the traffic jams that used to delight us two years ago? Just what happened to the people who used to live in those apartments and sit in the traffic?

The National asked an official who explained that the bureau estimate is compiled from records provided by the Ministry of Interior and Emirates Identity Authority. But what is the explanation?

Could it be that large numbers of illegal residents have been becoming ligitimate due to the introduction of the new identity cards? That would explain why official numbers might be up when anybody can see with their own two eyes that the actual population has fallen, though by how much is hard to say without the official data.

There cannot be much doubt these figures are wrong, or a correction of previous miscounting. It would be good to know which as business planning requires solid and reliable data, not straw polls.

Some useful data emerges, however. The 15-59 age group makes up 82 per cent of the population while children account for 16.8 per cent and the over 60s a mere 1.3 per cent.

Well educated nation

Nationals have a high illiteracy rate of seven per cent but are also probably the best educated population subset with 47 per cent holding secondary degrees or higher. Some 79 per cent of the expatriate population was ‘economically active’ against 45 per cent of Emiratis.

Nearly 20 per cent of the population were voluntarily unemployed – presumably Emiratis as expatriates have to go home if they lose their jobs, while 2.3 per cent were job seekers. There is no breakdown of the population data between the various national groups that comprise the multicultural UAE.

Having a National Bureau of Statistics is one thing, producing credible data is quite another, and at the very least a credible explanation of the incredible is required when presenting such data. Perhaps this will come in a future report.