The National reports on crashing off-plan real estate sales

Posted on 26 October 2008 with no comments from readers

The slump in UAE off-plan property sales is reported in detail by The National newspaper today which appears to have got over the embarrassing mistake on its front-page during Cityscape Dubai when a 16 per cent price increase accidentally turned into a price decline.

This is a bold move by the Abu Dhabi Government owned newspaper as other UAE media have been avoiding reporting on what is now blindingly evident to everybody in the real estate sector: namely that off-plan sales have almost come to a halt, and that second-hand property prices are now in decline.

The Cityscape Dubai 2008 exhibition a couple of weeks ago coincided with the start of this autumn’s global financial crisis and marked an end to the long boom in off-plan sales in the Emirates. Indeed, it is hardly surprising in the circumstances that buyers avoided making a long-term commitment like a property purchase.

Reselling part-paid property

The National also reports that the re-selling of partly-paid, off-plan property is extremely difficult. Again this is to be expected because partly-paid buyers are then responsible for future installment payments, and if house prices are falling they could well end up overpaying.

Meanwhile, secondary property sales are dogged by several factors: prices inflated over the summer months to perhaps over-optimistic levels; the difficulty in obtaining anything more than 65 per cent mortgages; and concerns about the outlook for the global and also local economy with oil prices sliding.

However, agents say the shortage of property in favorite locations should limit the downside in prices for completed property. They say the market is more in a ‘wait-and-see’ rather than a panic mode, as the price levels still indicate confidence among sellers.

Bull points

Factors that could stabilize the market include: government action to provide low-cost mortgage finance; in-coming funds from overseas markets, and a repeat of the flow of funds after 9/11 which funded the first Dubai real estate boom; stock market investors turning to property for high yields; and the lack of alternative investment opportunities in a turbulent period for global financial markets.

But it is hard to see foreign money flowing back into UAE real estate as the revaluation of the US dollar is making property here much more expensive for buyers from the UK, Europe and Russia.

On the other hand, real estate is a traditional hedge against inflation, and economists say a wave of inflation will hit the world within a year as a result of the $4 trillion now committed to bank bailouts.
This will mean higher oil prices, perhaps $150-200 a barrel, and that would be good for the UAE.

Taking advantage of depressed UAE property markets at this time might yet prove a good idea, although completed property, particularly the villas which are in short supply, looks by far the best option. This could be no more than a short bull market correction for UAE property – though that will not stop it being painful and terminal for some off-plan investors.

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