Estimating Dubai population loss in 2009 difficult
Posted on 18 January 2009 with no comments from readersOrder my book online from this link
The estimate by Swiss investment bank UBS that the Dubai population will decline by eight per cent in 2009, with a net loss of 8,000 per month, is proving highly controversial.
In the Emirates Business newspaper today the Dubai Naturalisation and Residency Department notes that in the past two months arrivals have far out numbered departures, with 86,000 arriving in December and 113,000 in November.
Hard data
It is hard to argue with official statistics. Talk of 1,500-2,000 visa cancellations a day are put into some perspective, if there are more people coming into Dubai than exiting.
But that is not to say that the property crash and business slump could not result in a net population loss this year. Many people who have just lost their jobs will be hoping to find another, while recruitment companies report a very sudden fall off in demand for new staff.
Around a third of the Dubai population is engaged in construction, real estate or related fields. But while sales of ready-mix concrete suggest a halving of construction activity, the sector has by no means come to a halt.
Declining population
Moreover, job losses will be biggest among the least well paid staff whose economic value to the city is less than the numbers suggest. On the other hand, a declining population base is bound to impact on every business in the city, and contrasts with the boom driven by new residents arriving and setting up home.
Then again would it be better if Dubai residents were losing their jobs and staying here and claiming social assistance. Clearly that would be a cost to the city and a net liability. Those who go home can come back.
But as far as the UBS estimate is concerned saying that Dubai will lose around 100,000 from its head count in what looks to be a serious economic downturn (oil price at $35, property crash, global recession, etc) does not look terribly outrageous, even if the figures do not show it yet.
no Comments posted by readers:
One thing residency does not pick up on are ppl who work in Dubai without having a residency permit. For eg, brits, swiss french, can all come here on visit visas, work for upto 2 months, hop on a plane to oman in month 3, and be back in Dubai 2 hours later on a fresh visa and back to work. They can come and go as they please and be deemed tourists.
When people find it difficult to make money in Dubai they will be packing up and leaving back home very quickly. With the UAE laying off employees due to the downturn in the current economy and the current losses people took with the local market colapse I’m not sure how many can afford to keep their families in Dubai. Dubai’s visa and residency fees are worse than taxes in the US. My Taiwan visa in my US passport costed me $100 for a multiple 5 year entry visa. It used to be free until the US started charging the Taiwanese $100 for a 5 year multiple entry visa. Anyone seen the Visa fees and residency fees that the UAE is charging these days?
Andy, it does all depend on your personal circumstances but I would be weary about going home into the worst economic downturn since World War II – the cost of living in Dubai will now gradually fall and this is part of the recession cycle. However, the forecasts are for far sharper downturns in the US and UK than the UAE.
Hey how nice would it be to drive on the roads, no traffic jams, no long waits at the signals, not to struggle for the parking. It would be a great place to live for all those who would make it!!!
The population loss is FAR greater than publicised, with many expats doing the “big bag” at the airport. I know people who are in HR in major companies and they are telling me that literally thousands are being laid off and exiting Dubai. Look in the foreign press to see the real extent of Dubai’s problems and you will see a number of excellent articles detailing the debt. Property and rental prices are falling rapidly, traffic is moving freely in comparison to what it was a few months ago and real estate companies are actually calling you back…..a sure sign that economic changes are afoot !