The West might be lost but is the sun also setting on the East?
Posted on 13 February 2011 with 10 comments from readers
One of the headline grabbing book launches of the past month is How the West was Lost by the Western-educated, African-born economist Dambisa Moyo whose previous work Dead Aid criticising Western aid to the Third World also caused a stir.
A flair for a catchy title and personal glamor always help. But this is a disappointing sequel that falls somewhere between macroeconomic academia and second-rate economic journalism (the paragraph on Dubai is inexcusable). So what went wrong with the West, or rather the US which is the main focus of this book?
The author is out to tackle ‘50 years of economic folly’. Nevermind the industrialized world’s astonishing recovery from the Second World War and the massive enhancement of the living standards for perhaps more than a billion people, latterly in Eastern Europe. Somehow this is judged a failure, and the worrying trends suggest this will continue.
Familar diagnosis
What are the problems? Well, it turns out to be a familiar tale of ramping up house prices and too much debt, unfunded pension funds and rather inexplicably paying too much to football stars. The latter apparently encourages too many youngsters to waste their time on sports when they could be taking courses in nuclear engineering.
Yes the West is a decadent place. But its higher education system does not appear to have done too badly for Oxford and Harvard educated Ms Moyo who presumably came from a rather wealthy background herself. But to write off the West as a busted flush is just too rich.
The progress of the past half century has been one of booms and slumps, and the latest downturn is just another downswing, albeit a serious one. Some individuals and even countries may never be the same again but this is not the end of the West.
This book does nothing except hark on about the rise of China. OK but China was and remains a very long way behind the West. If the West has its challenges to overcome so does China, and probably much bigger ones as the population is so large and the per capita wealth of the country comparatively small.
Ms Moyo conveniently does not go into detail on China, and concentrates on the weakness of the West. That is the focus of her book but it is also its weakness. The comparative strength of China is taken for granted, and yet we know China has several hundred million living below the poverty line in rural areas.
China rising
Great if over the next decade these people rise from poverty to have a modest standard of living. But citizens of the West already have that, so if China catches up that is no bad thing but it does not mean the end of the West. Indeed, China would be lost without the West as a customer and mentor.
In the 1980s it was Japan that was overtaking the West and then the Japanese stock and real estate markets crashed in 1990 and the growth juggernaut came to a griding halt. China will be the same, and a violent correction after the massive stimulus post financial crisis cannot be ruled out.
In the meantime, the West will face major challenges to keep its affluent lifestyle but then it always has done and has never lost it yet.
10 Comments posted by readers:
B.November 6-th 2010
THE GENERALIZED TRUTH THEORY
(DRAFT Part-1)
I. INTRODUCTION
According to mathematical laws truth and false are analyzed into a logic table of truth, allowing to truth value=1 and false value=0
How historically truth was found?
By wrong decisions, tests and checks and also by untruth use. These are the instruments for truth finding. Some of truths were found by rational means.
What is the truth status actually: truth is avoided usually.
Why? Because it can not be destroyed, killed, stilled, negotiated, e.a..
When non truths ends? When truth is the final form of non truths.
II. CONSERVATION LAW OF THE GENERALIZED TRUTH
Being the non truth value xi=[0,1)
Being f(xi )=function of non truth depending on value xi
Being ii=specific probabilistic index of non truth, universally acceptable in %
THE CONSERVATION LAW OF THE GENERALIZED TRUTH
The sum of functions of non truth multiplied by appropriate specific probabilistic index universally acceptable is equal to 1, the universal truth value.
Σf(xi ) • ii=1
Note: Is easier to add one non truth to all existing non truths, than to destroy all the non truths, because of unknown effects on human race.
For example: If we say that human race is of vampires, this will create at least a distress. Reasons: Humans grows animals for meat and also blood consumption. No surgery so no health without use of human blood.
The specific truth will be that humans are vampires and will depend on the above 2 arguments: food and medicine, which are the pattern of the specific truth.
To become UNIVERSAL TRUTH should that other patterns of non truths to conduct to the same specific truth. So, the UNIVERSAL TRUTH (generalized truth) will not depend on any pattern of non truths.
Starting from now on the theory of groups and mathematical analysis will unveal the rules of the GENERALIZED TRUTH.
….
With deep respect and consideration,
Constantin ROBITU
I can remember the old leader who transformed Singapore in a TV interview with Charlie Rose saying that the standard of living for the average Chinese could take nearly 100 years to surpass those of the average American. He started answering the question with a laugh. By around 2030, China will be the fastest ageing population of any large country. The one child policy lasted a LONG time. Nothing can change that now. China has numerous other problems. Their winter wheat crop is now in trouble.
The real estate bubble debt numbers are down right scary. If it pops, their stock market could suffer a gigantic fall. Then again, I could be wrong, and everything over there will be just fine, like it always is everywhere else.
Complete claptrap from an author who show’s absolutely no indication that she understands what’s been going on for the past half century. My test with Western critics is to ask them to explain what products and brands originate in the East in their wish-list of items they desire. You’ll be lucky if one item is non-western. The east just copy’s whilst the west continues to innovate.
I have not read her book, and it’s doubtful that I ever will, because it’s quite evident that the author is harboring some very deep prejudices for “all things western.”
No doubt, the west is decadent, and there are a great many problems in western civilizations, not the least of which are the many social injustices, and a highly corrupt, debt-based, economic system that allows banks to suck the blood out of its citizens.
So while I can empathize with her feelings (my wife of 40 years is Chinese), the author does not have her “chi” together; in other words, she is quite biased and does not present logical, rational arguments for her main points.
Let me start off by saying that I have not read Miss Moyo’s book. She clearly hit on a touchy subject for someone. Unfortunately her opinion on the developed world is true in my opinion. But I guess a woman offended a man in Dubai and you guys are getting ready to stone her.
I encourage everyone reading this commentary listen to Miss Moyo’s interview on BBC and form their own opinion.
http://www.youtube.com/user/dambisamoyo
Haven’t read the book….but she does have a point…the west’s economic ‘might’ is a mere blip in history..FACT. look at history and you will know that science and learning were very much eastern fashions before the werst started copying…and innovating…they werent in ‘the dark ages ‘ for nothing..(ergo i partially agree with the paul king above..)…the west has not gained economic supremacy so much through trade as through war…(opium wars, eastern tea company etc)..now that blip is being rightly corrected…the east can defend itself militarily and now with the internet and technology being so advanced, ideas are diffused and taken away and exploited almost immediately….i refer to the blip because before that, asia had a better quality of life in terms of education, economics, social order and security….education: see alberuni, al jebroun for geometry..india created the ‘zero’ etc..these were then taken to the west…social order: well, less population for a start but not as a result of the plague!…security:there were no intercontinental, economic based wars..infighting yes..but no trans racial wars as seem to be the case now (look at the USA dominating and now slowly losing its edge over non white states…)..as for economics, 2 words: silk route.
start learning chinese/urdu/hindi or remain fluent in english..these 3-4 languages will do you well going forward as this blip is about to end in the next 20 years…..
@ Willie Youmans:
As you suggested, I watched that BBC vid of Ms. Moyo’s interview, and have read a few excerpts of her assessments. In summary, while I totally agree with Ms. Moyo’s negative assessments of the West (and of the US in particular!), I stand by my comments made above.
China Has Massive Problems that She is Unaware of:
As for China, she completely ignores the many social, economic, and financial problems that China is facing now and in the near future (yes, the Chinese leaders are great at hiding their massive problems!).
More “Massive” Government Spending for the US?
For the US, she proposes massive government spending to correct the many social and economic problems that exist; this approach is suitable for hard infrastructure projects such as high speed rail where contracts have specific goals, objectives and “measures of effectiveness” (assuming that large contractors are competing for specific portions of the work involved!).
However, this same approach is totally wrong for trying to fix the US education system. Over the past 35 years, that is exactly what was done and the net result has been total failure. If one studies the US education infrastructure and the amount of mind-boggling spending on “fixing” it (in the trillions of US $!!!), history shows that US education system is totally broken by any measure one wishes to use.
Comments on coments:
2. Bill- You can be wrong;
3. Paul King: The UNIVERSALS;
4. Obewon: Wrong;
5. Willie Y: Mr. Irvin Sheltzer is on aristos cratos (aristocrate) position;
6. Alen Harper: Dear Sir, generally I agree with your point, but, RIGHT NOW EVERY ONE HAS THE BIG CHANCE TO THE PROPER THINGS AS I MENTIONED;
7. Oberon versus Willy Y: Is not about a fight, is about TRUTH AND REAL HUMANITY PROGRESS
With respect for any comment,
Constantin ROBITU
I disagree with the view that the US educational system is totally broken. While it is true that the US spents far more than other countries on education per capita, why is it that so many foreigners are educated in the US? At least the working class in the US have some chance of entering the middle class with a little hard work. In most parts of the world its virtually impossible.
For the readers who have not already, I encourage you to watch this video and form your own opinion about Ms Moyo’s views.
http://www.youtube.com/user/dambisamoyo