Frankly some of those negatives were called for and should be longterm positive. There are two related wildcards that you haven’t mentioned.

- The revelation in today’s Washington Times of a major foiled suicide bombing plot in Dubai.

- Yesterday’s warning by a former Israeli minister of an attack on Iran by year end if heavy sanctions aren’t imposed.

Remember that assassination of an ex-Chechen military official a few months ago where Dubai police suspect an Iranian, a Tajik as well as two Russian nationals?

Or the car bomb assassination of another Chechen in neighboring Qatar a few years ago, where two Russian spies were arrested?

UAE is very close to this brewing geopolitical storm.

I asked Dr Marc Faber whether this meant Dubai was at the bottom of the business cycle, his reply:

“The business cycle is irrelevant when money printing and gov intervention rules. Asset prices likely to recover.”

Dear Peter,

in the attempt to go back to the unsustainable boom, governments have been forcing interest rates lover and injecting printed money into their economies , on an prevously unimagineable scale.

Yes the may arrest asset prices from going lower in the short term or may even cause them to rise in places, but at a massive cost to the real economy. this intervention has impared the ability of entrepreneurs and consumers to make effective economic decisions and thus make a drawn out depression in the western world inevitable.

Dubai on the other hand , has let asset prices adjust relatively unfetted. So really the world economy should look like Dubai if not much worse as their fundamentals are weaker and their debt levels significantly higher.

there is no doubt in my mind, that Dubai, at present represents the best opportunity for future economic growth and profit potential in theworld. Even surpassing china for potential, as the chinese government has decided to interfere with the pricing mechanism, through masive stimulus and agressive lending policies, that of course will have to be paid for by its economy, in terms of a tax on future growth potential.

This is the cornerstone argument for my absolute faith in Dubai’s recovery and eventual return to massive prosperity.
The untaxed and unfetted markets are the onnly way to generate , large scale significant and lasting wealth.

Dubai at present , In my opinion, is the place in the world where conditions are in place, and hopefully will stay that way,where productive people can gather and do business with each other and the rest of the world on an relatively freebasis.

When I see Germany on the other hand , it looks like it will go the way of the DDR and the Soviet union. Anyone with a brain and some courage, has to get out of here , with whatever he/she can carry in the next six months, before some power crazed politicians,leveraging misguided public anger,to tax you to death.

Yours in Liberty,

Andre

@Anonymous, bang on and plenty more local/regional impacts that should be considered. Just not a good idea to discuss on public blog, especially if you have interests here in AUH/DXB. Fine for anonymous but not a good idea when your name is all over the blog…