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US house sales crash, oil stays above $105, Japan earthquake costs $309bn, silver hits new high

Posted on 24 March 2011 with 6 comments from readers

Yesterday the bulls were down to the last argument of the damned: that the stock market is showing overwhelming resilence in the face of massive evidence pointing to the downside, therefore the market will overcome anything and will continue to go up!

You hardly need to be the proverbial rocket scientist to see the flaw in this argument. Optimism can burn on itself for quite sometime until it suddenly runs out. Those who fly closest to the wind in financial markets try to calculate this to the narrowest margin, and then usually get burnt themselves.

That the first few months of 2011 have been game changers ought to be obvious to any observer. The list of black swan events is so long that it no longer fits into a single headline.

Roll of disasters

First, the domestic US recovery is quite clearly in trouble with new house sales running at an annualized rate of 250,000, compared with 2.2 million at the height of the boom, the lowest level since records began in the early 60s and house prices are at fresh lows again. Existing home sales have also crashed (click here). This must mean consumer confidence is shattered.

Secondly, the incredible wave of protest, revolution and civil war that has swept across the Middle East since a man in Tunisia set himself on fire in mid-January does not merely threaten to keep oil above $100 for an indefinite period, it is already there (click here).

The decimation of Japan’s nuclear capacity and subsequent irradiation of the country is another reason that oil and gas prices will now stay high going forward. This is not going to be a short term phenomenon, unless the world goes into deep recession which is perfectly possible and even then energy prices would not stay down for long.

Japan’s massive earthquake, set to cost three times the Kobe 1995 earthquake at $309 billion, is a third huge negative for global stock markets (click here). Apart from the power, factory and human losses, there is the knock on effect on global supply chains for many industries, from iPads to GM cars.

Eurozone debts

Fourth, the eurozone peripheral debt disaster is still rolling with the banks of Germany, the UK and France the biggest creditors that stand to make the biggest losses. The consequences for the financial system in terms of higher interest rates are already bad but this threatens only to get worse.

Fifth, we have the end of the $600 billion QE2 money printing in June. Is this it for the rocket fuel that has propelled stock markets upwards? (click here)

What has sustained the stock market rally, beyond the Wall Street hype and Fed money printing, is the rise in profits that followed the cost cutting of the recession, mainly job cuts. That is a one-off move that cannot be repeated. What comes next are the headwinds of input cost inflation from the rising price of energy and raw materials. We see that in abundance.

It’s a toxic stagflationary mixture straight out of the 1970s, only that higher levels of global indebtedness make it harder and harder for governments to spend their way out of a crisis. They will try, of course, pumping up inflation. That $246 billion injection from the Bank of Japan after the earthquake is yet more inflation in the works.

If the history of the late 1970s is any guide then investors will be skewing their portfolios towards energy and precious metals at this stage, a theme the ArabianMoney newsletter takes up this month with our pick of the year silver today at a fresh 31-year high (click here to sign-up). Regular readers should not be surprised about silver (click here).

Posted on 24 March 2011 Categories: Banking & Finance, Bond Markets, GCC Economics, Global Economics, Gold & Silver, Hedge Funds, Oil & Gas, US Stocks

6 Comments posted by readers:

Comment by Tiu - 24 March 2011

Does the 21st century have a re-wind button? Starting over, without the bankers bail-outs could be the solution (and vigorously prosecuting criminal fraud, no matter who’s doing it).

Comment by Frances Smith - 24 March 2011

OK..I have a question for you. I can’t seem to find anyone who knows what to do.
I have a bag of 40% silver Kennedy coins.
Let’s say the worst happens and the $ becomes worthless.
Let’s say I need to buy food to survive.
I need to know HOW to trade one of those 40% silver coins into groceries?
I can’t imagine offering the coin at the checkout counter of the groc. store.
They would view it as a 50 cent piece.
The bank doesn’t deal in precious metals. My coin would be worth 50 cents to them.
The cost of mailing it to someone would be cost-prohibitive.
My neighbor is in the same dilemma as I am.
What is the solution? To whom do I go to to get the best deal coin by coin?
I bought the coins for such an emergency, but need to know HOW to trade the coin for groceries, or paying bills, or gassing up the car.
Surely, someone reading this, with all their silver and gold coins tucked away, they know how they are going to turn their precious coins into buying power. Thank you.

Ed Note: You missed the point about your coins. They have a direct exchange value. You will find grocery stores accept them. What else would they accept? But don’t be alarmist – you will never, ever be in this position in the US. However, your silver coin bag will almost definitely be worth ten times what it is today.

Comment by obewon - 24 March 2011

For an unbelievable graphic on the history of US home sales, go here:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/sites/default/files/House%20Sales_2.jpg
You won’t believe what you see!

@ Tiu:
Your remarks echo my sentiments exactly!

In the great, grand scheme of this universe, I’ve often thought about how badly humans have screwed up this world for humanity in general. This is especially applicable over the last few years, and I wonder if the Creator is “tempted” to just hit the RE-SET button.

Comment by Bill near Slidell, Louisiana - 24 March 2011

@ Tiu
You ain’t seen nothing yet, my friend. During this century, the petroleum age that has enabled the most rapid increase in the standard of living in human history, will come to an end. We have been using more oil than we have been finding for about the last 40 years. Oil runs all ships, most railroad locomotives (especially those that transport raw materials from mines in countries like Australia), all large intercity trucks, all the farm tractors that produce the grain that goes into the global food trade, all aircraft (I heard a statistic that the global economy would instantly shrink by 10% without air travel), over 90% of personal vehicles, still heats millions of homes, and cooks (propane, butane) a significant percentage of the food people eat.
Last night, I once again stayed up way too late watching CNBC World from Asia. They were interviewing some expert, ‘big thinker’ Asian gentleman who said that the price of oil will eventually hit $500 a barrel. They asked him how soon it would happen, and what fuel will be substituted for oil, when it gets that expensive. He said, “I can’t tell you if it will be in 10, 20, or 30 years, but after that, we will be rubbing sticks together.”
Running out of oil will not be the first severe problem humanity will soon encounter. Running out of MONEY to pay for the oil will be. And although a significant amount of oil remains in the ground after an oil field is abandoned, eventually you reach a point when you use more energy to get the remaining oil out, than you get from the oil you produce. Many large oil fields are not too many years from that point.
Fortunately, the abundance of natural gas can probably prevent total economic collapse, but nothing can ever replace the concentrated energy content of cheap, convenient, crude oil. It is the most useful thing ever found. Life won’t be as easy without it.

Comment by Frances Smith - 26 March 2011

Apparently, my question asking how to transfer my 40% silver coins into groceries or gas appears to be a ‘hot potato’ and no one seems to have an answer. Many people write in that they have cans and jars of buried silver or gold coins for future use. Great! I believe that silver at some time in the wild future will be worth ‘ten times’ it’s value.. BUT… How do you turn that 50 cent 40% silver coin into ‘ten times’ it’s value?
The grocery stores I use would ONLY give face value (50 cents) for the 40% silver coin and there is no way in my community that they would consider giving ten times the face value of the coin.

So, I’ll ask again to ‘those in the know’. If YOU have stashed away silver or gold coins and the time arises whereby they are worth ‘ten times their value’… HOW are you going to turn them into ‘ten times their value’? Thank you. F.

Ed Note: You go to a coin shop and sell them. The world is not going to end. But the price of silver will go up and up.

Comment by obewon - 27 March 2011

@ Frances Smith, The Great Alarmist:
I just saw your two remarks on this blog for the first time; don’t be an alarmist! While the situation here in the US may get bad, it will be far better than in most other countries. Additionally, you hold physical coins, while millions of others do not; so look at the cup as being “half full” rather than being “half empty.”

Your question is certainly not a “hot potato”, your dilemma is certainly not a dilemma (if the dark scenario you paint comes to the US, which I strongly doubt, millions of Americans would wish they had done as you have done… so they are the ones who have the dilemma, not you!), and your solutions are rather easy to map out. But you have to realize that, no matter what the future holds, your silver coins will always be valuable to those who recognize its value, while the fiat paper money may not.

First, you ought to re-read the Editor’s remarks, because it’s good advice.

Second, physical gold and silver (as well as other physical assets) will always have value, while paper money may eventually have no value (e.g. Zimbabwe). But if you show your coins to a street beggar, they certainly won’t know the true value of your coins; so why interact with those (e.g. the clerk at the grocery store) who are ignorant of the coins’ value? As for banks, their seasoned bank officers certainly would know of the coins’ value, but they’ll cheat you, since cheating is their profession.

Third, as you know, whenever a person wishes to trade something, the benefit of that “trade” goes to the person who knows more about the true worth of both items. In the case of your coins, coin dealers and experienced investors will value your coins more than the clerk at the grocery check-out counter.

Some Simple Advice:
You’d be wise to built up a relationship with a dealer whom you can trust, and with whom you can “trade” coins. There are reputable coin dealers and there are crooks, just like in any business; so you have to be careful. In my case, I live in California, but I do not trust CA coin dealers that I’ve met; but there’s a coin dealer in Louisiana whom I trust. If you wish, I could give you my dealer’s email address/web address.

Transporting physical coins via registered mail is easy and relatively inexpensive (e.g. the USPS has specific sized boxes that can be used to ship this stuff at a fixed low rate, no matter how much the box weighs). You must check this out and become familiar with those box sizes. A reputable coin dealer will give you a great price for your coins, and he’ll make 3% or 4% when he trades those coins to others. So look upon that small amount as your cost of doing business with him.

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