So, Jim Rogers would begin to think about selling his silver if it reached $100 in the year. He would do this because it would be parabolic, that is in a bubble, he says.

However, he calms our nerves by saying that silver is not now currently parabolic, and he would not sell within 2011 if the silver price continues to go up in an orderly way.

Let’s look at what he’s saying in some detail. If silver were to reach $100 by the end of 2011, it would have to rise at the rate of $1.43 per week on average through the 35 weeks from the beginning of May. He is saying that if it rises at that rate or more, he would “begin to think about selling his silver”.

Well, I reckon that silver has been rising at $1.55 pw on average since the beginning of February.

If the 11 weeks since 5 February are divided into two cohorts of five weeks each, leaving the eleventh in the middle of the two groups, we can see that there has been an increase. In the first five weeks since 5 Feb, the price of silver grew at $1.42 per week on average and is the rate, if continued to the end of December which would make Rogers “begin to think about selling his silver”.

However, the silver rise in the second cohort of five weeks, from 19 March to 23 April, was $2.20 pw, which is 54% higher than Rogers’s $1.43 pw. Yet, he is saying that the current silver rise is “not yet parabolic” and that if it “continues to rise in an orderly way”, he will not begin to think about selling his silver in 2011.

If silver continues to rise in its current orderly way as it has done over the last five weeks at $2.20 pw, the silver price will reach $100 by the last week in September or the first full week in October, and that is well within 2011. Therefore, Rogers will sell or begin to think about selling his silver in the Fall/Autumn, even though it has been rising at the same rate from 19 March, which he currently considers not to be parabolic but an orderly rise.

If silver rises at the average rate of $1.55 pw as it has done between 5 February and end of April, the price will still reach $100 within 2011, so that Rogers should be thinking of selling his silver NOW and not wait until the first full week of December. If reaching $100 at some time within 2011 is parabolic and a bubble, then silver is NOW parabolic and in a bubble. Yet he says this is not the present situation so he’s going to sit tight.

I don’t know what to make of Rogers’ pronouncement of $100 for silver as being the point where he sells his silver or thinks about doing so at some time in 2011.

It seems to me that he has just plucked $100 out of the air because it is a nice round number. Indeed, it is the nicest and most memorable of all round numbers since the concept of percentage is based on 100. I suggest that this is why he has made what appears to be a nonsensical statement.

I shall certainly not sell nor begin to think about selling silver if it reaches $100 within 2011 and certainly not at or after September/October. Its rate of price increase in the two cohorts of weekly prices I have given above show a 54% or so rate of increase between the first group to the second, all within an 11 week period of time.

None of this is troubling Jim Rogers at the moment, so why should the same weekly rate increase trouble him at any other time in 2011.

Ed Note: This may be right or wrong in the price movement pattern – you should get our next newsletter for some more detail on this – its a bit beyond the website.

Rogers is always worth listening to!

@ Peter:
There have been several of my prior posts which your server didn’t accept, and my take is that it rejects them because I often use HTML codes embedded within the text of my remarks. So as an experiment, I try to eliminate most of those codes.

Ed Note: Yes the idea is to comment on this website, not to take people off to others, and I think there is a limit to what the server can cope with. Our page views are much higher these days.

@ John Mark:

Got gold? check

Got silver? check

Got ArabianMoney’s NewsLetter? Hmm.

Not a Bubble, because Backwardation.
Silber go 93$ / oz!
Silver is undervalued!
Buy Silber!