Posted on 30 May 2011 with 6 comments from readers
Will global stock markets or commodities crash on June 13th? It is a question being seriously asked by chartists around the world and followers of the eccentric economist Martin Armstrong whose 8.6-year business cycle points to this day for a major transition.
It would be easy to dismiss Armstrong as a crank if he had not been right so many times before with his modelling. As the ArabianMoney newsletter (click here) explains this month the theory fits the 1929 and 1987 Wall Street crashes, the 1989 Nikkei top, the 1994 S&P bottom, the 1998 Russian market top, the 2002 S&P market bottom and the 2008 stock market bottom.
It is therefore important to know the market cycles. Essentially, there are four different phases in an entire market cycle. First is the accumulation phase, followed by the mark-up phase, then the distribution phase, and the last being the mark-down phase. A good understanding of the market cycles will help you maximise your returns. Hence, continue reading to know more the changes happening in a stock market.
There have also been 8.6-year cycle days when nothing has happened, so this is not a perfect indicator. However, the record is impressive and hence widely followed by technical chartists who may not subscribe to some of Armstrong’s wilder essays of analysis.
The ArabianMoney newsletter this month considers various scenarios that might be proposed to fit this date with destiny, from a commodities and stock market top to a major fall in global stock markets.
We certainly sense that markets are reaching a turning point. What has gone up for a very long time in the case of stocks must have a downturn around the corner.
The beauty of Armstrong’s analysis is that he puts an actual date on his turning point as a confluence of a major mathematical cycle that we could not hope to understand even if he gave access to his proprietory model which he does not.
Gold price spike?
Gold bug leader Jim Sinclair is a dedicated fan of Armstrong whose projections for the gold price are off the scale for most precious metal analysts, and chime more with the $13,644 forecast (click here).
Could June 14th be the take off for gold and silver into a truely exponential spike? It is one possibility. Could this also be when the debt crisis pushes the bond markets over? That is another.
Such uncertainty is troubling in itself, and it would be great to be more certain about the outlook. Still that is probably a more honest approach than trying to pretend that all is well with the global financial system and that recovery is at hand, when it is increasingly obvious that this is just not true.