Comex position is bullish again for silver prices
Posted on 15 June 2011 with 13 comments from readers
Silver prices are set in the Comex futures pit in Chicago, and traders are becoming excited again by prospects for the shiniest of metals because of the supply and demand position within the exchange.
What has happened recently is a drop in the amount of physical silver available for delivery in the Comex – down 38 per cent to 29 million ounces since the start of 2011 – while the amount of silver that is being held for clients to claim in the Comex is up by 23 per cent to 72 million ounces.
Bullish signal
This looks like a classic under supply relative to demand situation waiting to happen, and this is very bullish for the price of silver.
There is less physical silver available for delivery in the Comex while the amount being held for clients is sharply up. So you have a falling supply of silver and strong demand. That should mean a higher silver price.
Of course it is only a couple of months since the price of silver spiked above $50 and then fell dramatically back to earth. ArabianMoney commented at the time that this was actually a healthy indicator for much higher prices in the future, and that a correction meant that this was not the final spike, merely a short-term speculative blow-off to clear out the speculators.
How long will it now take for them to come back? Well, hopefully they have gone for sometime and have retired with burnt fingers and it will be the longer term investors who buy silver now.
ArabianMoney is still concerned about another drop in the silver price before it starts to move solidly ahead again, to retest the already established new high. That would probably occur in the midst of a crisis in financial markets that many analysts now expect very soon, most likely involving a default by Greece and a European sovereign debt crash.
No other safe haven
However, if bond markets blow up and interest rates surge then the exit to precious metals as a safe haven could be very rapid as king of the gold bugs Jim Sinclair suggested last week (click here). Accumilating silver now might then look very clever.
The next issue of the ArabianMoney newsletter will explain a novel way to invest in silver to maximize the gain from this price shift but you will need to subscribe to get this potentially very valuable information (subscribe here).
Silver was this website’s top tip for 2011 (click here).

13 Comments posted by readers:
I am simply amazed by the power that investors around the world devolve to COMEX. It should be clear by now to every free-thinking person that COMEX deal primarily in ‘paper’ silver. I have checked the periodic table and I can’t find any reference to a metalic element that consists primarily of ‘paper’ and exists not as a solid, nor a liquid, nor a gas. Indeed, I can not find any reference to ANY metalic elements that exist either as paper or as numbers written on a paper graph / computer screen.
The actual ‘phsyical’ metal bullion (held in your own posession – not on a piece of paper or in someone elses ‘warehouse’) is what should count.
Mark my words on this – investors big and small alike will wake up to the fact (very soon) that only real ‘physical’ silver – held in your own vault, safe, or hand is what really counts.
Once the rush to take posession of physical silver starts there will be a massive divergence in value between ‘promises on paper’ and ‘real pieces of metal’. Investors will be desperate to dump thier paper promises and hold real tangible assets. When this process really starts in earnest you will be glad you got into silver early.
Ed Note: Very true but this is how the price is set. Silver in the Dubai souk costs around $50 an ounce for small bars but the bigger ones are more in line with the Comex price.
the beginning of the coming ‘paper crash’ where paper of all kinds is discounted to real assets, starting with precious metal ETF’s, will signal the final long parabolic move up in gold and silver.
have you considered this letter—-outstanding issues at the CFTC
found on—-www.roadtoroota.com/public/618.cfm
Ed Note: Yes we have talked about these issues in the past – the price suppression is getting unsustainable as the renewed strength of the silver price demonstrates. You cannot predict exactly when this will break, just make sure that you are there when it happens…
@ The Old Man:
Excellent commentary . . . this phrase is worth repeating in boldface:
“investors big and small alike will wake up to the fact (very soon) that only real ‘physical’ silver – held in your own vault, safe, or hand is what really counts.”
@ Ed.:
In your response to 3phaseman above, you stated: Yes we have talked about these issues in the past. I believe you need to be a little more forthcoming here.
I’ve been a daily reader of your blog and your commentaries (which are excellent, BTW) for a long time, and have not seen you talk about these issues raised by Bix Weir; in fairness, in two of your previous commentaries, you made a only a “casual reference” to price manipulation. In those commentaries, a number of your readers, including myself, went to great lengths to add extensive remarks about this manipulation, who is doing it, why it’s being done, and the organizations that are complicit in these manipulative actions. But the specific issues that Bix Weir addressed in his letter to the CFTC have not been mentioned herein.
The primary players in this JPM Cartel include the US FED and CME/CBOT/CFTC/GS/ C/B/HSBC/MS/DB/Scotia Mocatta. This is the ultra-strong cartel, and they are the ones who launch coordinated attacks on a global basis. The FED gives the JPM Cartel as much cash as they need to launch as many “paper-based” attacks on silver as they want, but it can’t give them physical silver. For those who wish to read a detailed analysis and excellent commentary of how the JPM Cartel is manipulating, go here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/268691-anatomy-of-silver-manipulation-how-low-can-it-go
There is not that simple with silver.
And it’s not because of inflation and some investors or speculators.
Do you know how called silver in China among the small circle of insiders?
“SILVER – is the OIL of 21st century.”
Each square foot solar array – it is silver.
Each element of the solar battery contains about 1.2 grams of silver per 1 watt of energy.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/It-is-time-for-silver-hunting-30198-3-1.html
India announced plans to increase its power of solar energy to 20 GW per year by 2020 from zero at the moment.
The Chinese have announced plans to raise capacity from 5.5 gigawatts to 30 gigawatts by 2020.
And in fact, the U.S. had already announced the same.
There’s your answer to the question of why China, traditionally a major exporter of silver in 2010, suddenly found himself among the largest importers of “energy metal.
Silver was a unique metal even before of introduction of “green energy”
Silver combines both the monetary property of gold and industrial properties of palladium and platinum.
With the advent in the silver third property – energy component, rise of world prices on this metal has become inevitable.
For a long time monetary governance in the U.S. has artificially held back, and continue to keep the prices of silver and gold.
http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1305320456.php
Why do they do this? Let’s find it out.
Silver prices are inextricably linked with gold prices through so-called gold/silver ratio.
Millions of private and institutional market participants build they own trading strategy which based on the fact that for 40 ounces of silver they can buy one ounce of gold. When it’s well-established value of one ounce of gold that expressed directly in a few ounces of silver shifts in one direction or another, then market participants through their actions are driving it back.
Whether we like it or not, but even today who controls the world gold market – controls the world monetary system as a whole.
Only thanks to initial binding of dollar to gold, America’s national currency gets the status of world reserve currency with all the ensuing consequences.
After that the U.S. starts manipulating with gold.
Goals of that were not only turning gold in the “goods” relatively of paper U.S. dollar, but and artificially keeping the price of gold. A special role in these manipulations, belong the organization with the maximum degree of instability in gold prices, denominated in “a far more stable and predictable – the U.S. dollar.
Ruling in FRS bankers and appointed in their interests the U.S. government is quickly realized one simple truth: If gold will have a true price on goods and thus it will be stable, then who in the world will need their green paper called “dollars”?
But the worlds gold market is huge and it is difficult to control even for FRS – holder of the world monetary printing presses under the brand name “U.S.”
And then, in the bowels of FRS solution was made: to regulate the price of gold, through silver prices via referred above gold/silver ratio.
Silver market is very small and its regulation is not difficult and does not require huge expenditures from such a major regulator, as the U.S. FRS.
Summing up we can draw the following obvious conclusions:
- Who controls the world market for silver, controls the world price of gold through the gold / silver ratio (GSR).
- Who controls the world price of gold, controls the world monetary system.
But all this controlling idyll come to an end when China start to use FRS manipulations with the prices of silver and gold in order to replenish their own Official reserves (Gold reserves) In exchange on the accumulated trillions of dollars. From this moment any manipulation of the U.S. FRS with the prices of silver and gold began play into the hands of not only the U.S. dollar, but also the interests of China.
Any manipulation with the FRS with the prices of precious metals China has become used to supplement to replenish their gold reserves by these metals with possible lowered prices.
And FRS’s management was stunned. On the one hand, they forced to permanently reduce and hold prices of precious metals for providing inviolability of the world’s position of dollar, but in the other hand, each of that operation for decrease leads to the release in the market from china billions of dollars and irrevocable buying-out from the market any volume of gold and silver at the lowest possible prices.
In this year, China for the first time in history has overtaken India in terms of purchasing gold.
Yes, there is not that simple with silver. Among the properties of silver appeared radically new “energy» component.
Besides that, with silver starts big game – battle with U.S. and China for a control for world prices for gold. And therefore battle for a control over the entire world monetary system in total.
All this leads to the following prediction:
The index of gold / silver ratio will gradually shift from the current ratio 1:40 to 1.16 and higher.
That is, silver will go up more quickly than gold. I do not exclude that such appreciation will occur through the reduction of silver to $ 20 per ounce. However, I have no doubt that the next target for silver is far beyond the $ 50 per ounce.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Silver-prices-up-3733-last-time-what-about-now-39361-3-1.html
For each ounce of gold that exists on the planet, there are approximately only 5 ounces of silver. http://www.oroyfinanzas.com/2011/05/el-ratio-de-las-existencias-totales-de-oro-y-plata
(Spanish)
i am all in precious metals except for 3x shorting the DOW occasionally.
in the coming credit/fiat/soveriegn debt collapse industrial silver will not mean anything.
and yes silver typically gets to 1:16 in a precious metals flight to quality.
but i don’t think i’m holding gold or silver all the way THRU and DURING and PAST the restructuring of the planets monetary systems to that green nirvana dream past peaK oil.
it will have to be hydrogen from splitting water to ever replace oil.
this run WILL have a time to get out…….when my gung-ho-socialist corp. stock picking buddies want to buy my gold.
but then again i’m not young and have no children(worse thing you can do to them by the way is leave them more than alittle ‘mad’ money)
leave them the house,you need to spend your earned money on your self.
@ boatman:
You need to be very, very careful whenever you buy leveraged ETFs, whether 2X or 3X long or short. In summary, try not to hold those positions for more than a few weeks; otherwise, your chance of making money is greatly diminished. It’s far, far better to buy something like SH, which is an unleveraged short against the S&P.
The reason here is because leveraged funds are designed by their makers to be volatile, and the more volatility there is, the worse your returns will be. This is true even if the fund is working in your favor most of the time.
Google “leveraged short positions” for more info; it’s most often a fool’s errand! Back in September 2008, I bought large 2X short positions, and was up over 200% by March 2009; I held on until April 2009, at which point all of my gains were wiped out.
oh yeah, i know about the X’s……only a day position…unless its a no-brainer i’m out at 4pm.
and they erode over time(n fairly quickly) if ‘real’ subject goes sideways.
its a windfall(+ or -) very short term trade.
which is the best price to buy physical silver.i miss buyig oppourtinity at ndar to &34.plz shoud i buy it now.i an not in hurry.plz advice me.help me. THANKING YOU.
Personally, I would buy all that you can right now, any price below $100 is cheap, and I cant see the price remaining this low for too much longer. Don’t miss the boat!!
I loaded up on silver when it was 24 an ounce. I have enough cash left to last me until November of this year. Then starting in November, I will be forced to sell some of my silver for survival, to pay bills and for food. Anybody have a clue what the silver price might be by November? I sure hope it’s not less than 24 an ounce by then where I will lose money? That would be horrible! But then back in November of 2008, silver was under 10 an ounce. Any suggestions or predictions on the silver price by November? Thanks…….
Ed Note: $50
Hi Fred im in simalar position bought at $14 but running out money fast. Nobody knows price over shorter term. I thort when I bought that the price would have exploded by now ie.$150 an oz. I am just gonna do everything I can to hold on month by month this will increase my chances of much higher prices. Dont be fooled by recent big price drops. This will ALWAYS HAPPEN until finally the paper market can no longer control the physical market. Good luck
methinks the Ed.’s prediction is a good one for the silver spot price in November.
In the long term, silver will be going much higher; but over the next year or two, if the deflationary depression in the USA continues, it will hold silver back.