World running out of oil says IEA
Posted on 30 October 2008 with no comments from readersPeak oil theorists can take heart from an authoritative new study from the IEA. Reported the Financial Times yesterday:
“Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.
Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.
The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de-mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.
The IEA, the oil watchdog, forecasts that China, India and other developing countries’ demand will require investments of $360bn (£230bn) each year until 2030. The agency says even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent.
The decline will not necessarily be felt in the next few years because demand is slowing down, but with the expected slowdown in investment the eventual effect will be magnified, oil executives say.
“The future rate of decline in output from producing oilfields as they mature is the single most important determinant of the amount of new capacity that will need to be built globally to meet demand,” the IEA says.
The watchdog warned that the world needed to make a “significant increase in future investments just to maintain the current level of production”.
The battle to replace mature oilfields’ output could even offset the decline in demand growth, which has given the industry – already struggling to find enough supply to meet needs, especially from China – a reprieve in the past few months.
The IEA predicted in its draft report, due to be published next month, that demand would be damped, “reflecting the impact of much higher oil prices and slightly slower economic growth”.
It expects oil consumption in 2030 to reach 106.4m barrels a day, down from last year’s forecast of 116.3m b/d.”
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It expects oil consumption in 2030 to reach 106.4m barrels a day, down from last year’s forecast of 116.3m b/d.”
Yup, and I expect to see flying pink elephants towing jumbo jets across the Atlantic by 2030.
Sheesh, who pays these guys salaries?
O/T, but I thought you’d like to know.
Bahrain Tribune.
Oct 29 (Bahrain) – A massive rush at jewellery shops has led to a shortage of gold at some outlets, prompting some shopkeepers to overcharge customers, reports Gulf News.
Jewellers are seeing a huge rush of buyers as gold prices are currently at a two-year low.
Shopkeepers said the rush, a combined result of the Hindu festival of Diwali and lower prices has resulted in a shortage of gold bars. But they denied any hoarding by outlets.
“There is enough gold available in the market and sales are at their peak over the last couple of days with the market falling drastically,” jewellers said across the emirate.
A buyer who asked not to be named said: “The price of gold prompted me to visit the Gold Souq in Sharjah. However, most retailers claimed they were sold out. Outlets where gold was available were openly overcharging. They said it was in short supply. The price of 24 carat stood at Dh88.75 but they were openly charging Dh92.50. This is clearly an unfair practice.”
Shubash Golati, a buyer, said: “It is a tradition to buy gold during the four-day Indian festival of Diwali. I bought 22 carat jewellery worth Dh5,000. I wanted to buy a 100 gramme gold bar but was told that it is out of stock.”
HR Bafna, financial controller from Siroya Jewellers, said a physical shortage of gold is happening worldwide.
He said: “It is matter of physical delivery. It might take a day or two to replenish the stocks. But I am sure that there is no hoarding by jewellers because the market rate has dropped. This has resulted in a tremendous rush of buyers and so the gold bars are out of stock.”
In reply to buyers’ complaints that gold outlets are cashing in on the limited stocks and buyer rush, Bafna said: “There is a possibility, but I can’t confirm this.”
A counter salesman at the Joy Alukkas outlet in Bur Dubai said for the last couple of days there have been no fluctuations in gold prices.
He said: “From a customer’s point of view this is an excellent time to buy.”
He too denied any hoarding taking place. “If the demand for gold is high it is but obvious that some stocks will run out. Some retailers take advantage of this.”