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Marc Faber expects 10% fall in Dow Jones

Posted on 07 April 2009 with no comments from readers


After the best March rally for 30 years Dr Marc Faber expects a 10 per cent fall in the US stock market. This video explains the background to this prediction.

Posted on 07 April 2009 Categories: Banking & Finance, Bond Markets, Global Economics, Investment Gurus, US Dollar, US Stocks, Video Channel

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Comment by Peter Cooper - 07 April 2009

The U.S. economy is in for a “lasting slowdown” and could face a Japan-style period of relatively low growth coupled with high inflation, billionaire investor George Soros said on Monday.

Soros, speaking to Reuters Financial Television, also warned that rescuing U.S. banks could turn them into “zombies” that draw the lifeblood of the economy, prolonging the economic slowdown.

“I don’t expect the U.S. economy to recover in the third or fourth quarter so I think we are in for a pretty lasting slowdown,” Soros said, adding that in 2010 there might be “something” in terms of U.S. growth.

Soros’ view contrasts with the majority of economists, who expect the U.S. economy to stop contracting in the third quarter and resume growing in the fourth quarter, according to the latest monthly poll of forecasts conducted by Reuters.

The recovery will look like “an inverted square root sign,” Soros said. “You hit bottom and you automatically rebound some, but then you don’t come out of it in a V-shape recovery or anything like that. You settle down—step down.”

The healing of the banking system and housing markets is crucial to recovery. “The banking system, as a whole, is basically insolvent,” Soros said.

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What’s more, the Treasury’s Public-Private Investment Fund is going to work but it won’t be enough to recapitalize the banks in a way that they are able to or willing to provide credit.

“What we have created now is a situation where the banks who will be able to earn their way out of a hole, but by doing that, they are going to weigh on the economy,” he said. “Instead of stimulating the economy, they will draw the lifeblood, so to speak, of profits away from the real economy in order to keep themselves alive. This is the zombie bank situation.”

Comment by Debt Deflation - 24 July 2009

An economy built on DEBT is a false economy.

Comment by Peter Cooper - 24 July 2009

But a debt driven economy is difficult to judge because the distortions can last a long time. All you do know for sure is that it will end very badly eventually. You could also have what is greeted as a recovery but is actually no more then new debts, for a while. This seems to explain the rally on Wall Street but the day of reckoning will follow!

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