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Another stock market crash almost upon us?
Posted on 03 August 2009 with no comments from readersThis video presents the case for a fresh fall to new lows.
This could come as soon as mid-August. The S&P rally appears to be a 50% rebound from the March low and this could be reached very soon.
My problem with the new bull market thesis is simple: we are in the worst recession since the Second World War and there is no recovery in sight, merely some signs that we might be bumping along the bottom. The stock market is well ahead of reality, and making an error of optimism that will have to be corrected by lower share prices.
And can I be alone in thinking that Alan Greenspan’s pronouncement this weekend that the recession may well be over just has to be famous last words!
no Comments posted by readers:
Peter:
You’re not alone here!
A few facts to augment your argument:
1. Housing market is not recovering; banks are not “foreclosing” their large inventory of “bad loans” because if they did, they would have to show huge losses on their books.
2. The commercial real estate market is dropping precipitously, not only in the US, but also in many other countries. Many new high rise condominiums have occupancy rates of less than 20%.
3. There are no “new” jobs on the horizon here in the US, and existing jobs are precarious, since small and medium sized companies are continuing to reduce their employment, in a desperate effort to remain solvent.
4. The US government continues to manipulate as much as they can; the stock market, the bond market, the precious metals market, the oil market, etc. The “finale” of this extreme manipulation and market intervention is rather obvious: severe market corrections!
“We’ve looked at the bubble question and we’ve concluded that it is most unlikely…” – Alan Greenspan
Nice presentation from a chartist.
However I would ask anyone listening to look very closely at what the OEX Calls, smart money indicators, were doing during August September and October last year,(at around 8 minutes in the tape)
The indicator was very bullish and yet the S&P crashed and burned shortly after and during that period.
Make up your own mind at how useful the indicator was at that point in time and how much credence can we place in it now.
These are testing times, optimists and pessimists abound. I would urge everyone to look very critically at each and every presentation before making any serious investment decisions.
Cheers
A shaped recovery, V shaped recovery….what a load of bull…..
there are guys like huffington and http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com that keep bringing the truth….but obama and his clowns dont… and i underline the word clowns there….this whole thing is a charade and a joke peoples.
god bless and prepare for the coming 12 months…i am not joking. Things are about to turn for the worse.