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Nouriel Roubini sees 60% chance of recession
Posted on 01 September 2011 with 5 comments from readers
Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini, who correctly forecast the last recession told Bloomberg’s Margaret Brennan that there is a 60 per cent chance of another recession soon:
‘This time around the macro data is negative, so yes, the market is rallying on the expectation of QE3, but I think it will be a short-lived rally. The macro data, ISM, employment, and housing numbers will come out worse and worse, the market will start to correct again. We’re going to a recession, we are at stall speed and we are running out of policy bullets.’
Posted on 01 September 2011
Categories: Banking & Finance, Global Economics, Investment Gurus, US Dollar, US Stocks, Video Channel
5 Comments posted by readers:
I was actually laughing by the time he got to the end, maniacal laughter. I’ve coined another name for the learned professor – The Negative Santa Claus. Rumors are circulating that the talks in Greece to discuss their budget cutting didn’t go all that well. And how about the Federal Reserve Bank telling the Bank of America to prepare ‘contingency plans’ for what they would do IF the economy goes in the dumper. I’m glad I don’t own any of that sucker. Those Tea Party folks might take Obama and Bernanke hostage, if they tried to bail out another bank.
Meanwhile Roger Nightingale is on CNBC saying that only Germany, the Netherlands, and the Scandinavians have bonds that are NOT vulnerable to attack by the bond vigilantes.
Just think if Roubini was a weather forecaster. ‘Hurricane Katia will hit New York City, flood the subways, and render the city uninhabitable for months.”
@ Bill: enjoyed the last sentence in your remarks:
“Just think if Roubini was a weather forecaster. ‘Hurricane Katia will hit New York City, flood the subways, and render the city uninhabitable for months.”
Reminds me of the argument between Jim Rogers and Roubini back in November 2009; Rogers said gold would go to $2,000 in 2 years. Roubini said “that’s utter nonsense.”
Reference: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aO5Ixot8pcQ8
Have you noticed that Roubini has been rather quiet about the price of gold this year?
Eating crow, especially with all the feathers intact, ain’t fun!
Roubini has actually forecast very little. Try Gerald Celente if you want someone with an accurate 30 year history of getting it right.
Roubini forecasting something? Gee, I thought he doesn’t forecast any more, because he doesn’t want to “lose face” when it turns out that he was wrong.
Someone ought to tell Roubini that we’re already in a recession here in the US. Here’s one source:
Link: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/global-recession-right-here-right-now.html
There are others who also believe the US is in recession; but those economists aren’t Keynesian.
I wouldn’t pay much attention to Roubini. On May 20,2010 he forecast a 20% decline in the Dow. One year later the Dow was up 27%. After his forecast the Dow only dropped 5% on July 1, 2010 and never looked back since.