Peter- what are your thoughts on Merril’s call that oil may fall to 50 a barrel next year.. if global recession hits, how will it manifest on real estate in UAE? so far it has paid for oil producers not to hedge production in the forward market, but at one point they have to bite the bullet and hedge.

You forget oil was down around that level at the start of 2007 – so this is a setback at the margin for the UAE whose plans are not dependent on oil at $100+ – real estate will be the same with a crunch in new off-plan sales but rescues, consolidations and bailouts for the rest of the market. Completed homes will, amazingly continue to rise in value as supply is so very short, and the hoards coming to Dubai just have to be seen to be believed. I can barely manage a visit to the supermarket and find a parking space, restaurants are always booked out and the traffic horrendous.