Will financial astrologer Arch Crawford finally get the stock crash right?Posted on 15 November 2010 with 6 comments from readers
Today is the final day for Arch Crawford, doyen of the financial astrologers to redeem his tattered reputation. Earlier this year his forecast of a major market correction between August and the end of October caught the attention of his followers, and only real devotees gave much heed to a mid-November extension (click here).
So now we arrive at Monday 15th November, the supposed day of the crash. Will it actually happen? Skeptics will laugh out loud but market analysts are far from rocking in their seats (click here).
Market heading down
Last week’s market losses could well be the start of a major counter trend to the long rally since March 2009. Nothing goes up forever, and this rally in the face of an almost non-existent US economic recovery does look overdone.
Even in China there are now serious concerns that its post-crisis stimulus boom went way over the top, creating inflation – something that has not been helped by Fed money printing. The biggest snap in stock prices last week was in Shanghai.
October’s level of confidence among US retail investors was also ominous. Big surges in confidence always come before a major correction. The question marks over the viability of QE2 and money printing now suggest that this particular moonbeam may not have been worth chasing.
Falling to earth
What happens when stock markets reach dizzying heights without the fundamentals to support them? What happens when anybody who might buy is in the market? You get a correction.
Is it all in the stars? Well, Mr Crawford has looked a bit of an idiot this summer, perhaps he will now be right.