Whatever next? Stocks down, Real Estate down, Commodities and Precious Metals under pressure. Cash may well be king for a few months. Question is what will happen Sept/Oct. I had a feel for the last 2-3 years but it’s very difficult to fathom now – summer lull may be followed by Autumn sell-off to drive values to real discounts. When to buy?

Ed Note: If you’re convinced of that then short ETFs should perform well.

Dow futures are way down. I’ve noticed that more often than not, when that happens on a Monday morning, the market usually ends the day down, but FAR less than it is down soon after the open. It will be interesting to see if it happens, yet again. (NEVER trade based on my opinion, unless you like losing your money.)
I’ve got a bad feeling about Spain, sometime next year.
And oil sits near $100. That is something that is really useful. You can recycle metals, buy not oil. Gold seems to be in love with $1,500 and silver with $35.
At least we aren’t in Iceland which is being torn in half by plate tectonics. That dust reminds my of a scary (I scare easily) TV show that I watched about volcanoes. Some scientists was puzzled about what had killed a bunch of extinct animals that were dug up in Nebraska. He examined their fossilized bones and found that they were unusual. He consulted other experts who told him that such malformations closely resembled those from a disease that limits oxygen intake by the blood. He was able to deduce that the poor animals had died from inhaling volcanic dust. Problem was that there are no volcanoes anywhere near Nebraska. He began to search data bases. (Like I did when I found that the United States Geologic Survey, usgs.gov, has discovered that oil and gas production has sunk parts of Southeast Louisiana by up to 3 feet. See: ‘Subsidence and Fault Activation Related to Fluid Energy Production, Gulf Coast Basin Project’ on the USGS web site if you want to know why coastal Louisiana now floods so often. It is worth the visit to see that the government is spending some of your tax money on something actually useful. Local media outlets WILL NOT DISCUSS the results of the study. Oil money talks in Louisiana.)
He finally found that the nearest volcano large enough to bury Nebraska in a meter of ash was in Wyoming. It was the Yellowstone super volcano which last erupted roughly 600,000 years ago. The next time it does that, well, Wikipedia the words ‘Lake Toba’ and be thankful that super volcanoes aren’t more abundant.

Ed – I’m not convinced of it. That’s the problem. My convinction for the past 2-3 years has paid off handsomely. Now I have no conviction as the part of the story I was sure about has already played out. Too many variables now. Much is fully priced, many bad things are already known about and part discounted for. EU is a problem but it is a known problem. I am now of the opinion that cash is best for a while whilst a path begins to emerge.

Ed Note: Yes cash not bonds, there is a big difference this time!