“Nevermind the central banks will buy their own bonds to ensure that the money supply continues to grow.”
i’ve got a question about this: do you think the same about europe? What the ecb has done up to now will never be enough.
As the merkel camp won last week, don’t you doubt about further european bailout ?

I was surprised that the US population is 110,000,000 larger than Brazil. That is equal to the combined population of the UK and Spain. I would have thought it would have been a bit closer. And how about the population of half frozen-over Canada being 50% larger than Australia, with all those beautiful beaches, Great Barrier Reef, and nice coastal climate. Of course, Canadians seldom get eaten by crocodiles and sharks, or die from snake bites.
Russia is heading into BIG economic trouble. The population is decreasing rapidly. They will begin to experience severe economic decline within this decade. If they had a rule of law, the Russians MIGHT be able to reverse their decline because the place is unbelievably rich in natural resources. Foreign investment would pour into the country if people didn’t think that it might get stolen in one way or another.
Brazil will do much better. I hope I’m still around for the Olympics because it is near the same time zone. I just watched Leni Riefenstahl’s documentary on the 1936 Berlin Summer Olympics, ‘Olympia.’ Even in German, (which I don’t speak) that first disc left me emotionally drained. She was a genius who got associated with Hitler and the Nazis which limited her opportunities after the War. Who knows what else she may have been able to do, had she been able to go to Hollywood, or work more easily in Germany. She pioneered the camera techniques used to cover sports today, and lived to be 101. When you see what athletes looked like back then, and really until about the 1970’s or so, you can see the impact of steroids in sports. No huge bulging muscles back then. All you need to do is look at the necks of today’s baseball players versus players during the golden age of baseball to see the difference drug use has made. That throws all the records off.
They wealthy will never take the hit of necessary debt write – offs. That means money printing will eventually happen. But I wouldn’t count on it next year.
Some fellow is drilling down 33,000 feet (10 km) in shallow water right off the coast of Louisiana, where the world’s first offshore oil well was drilled in 1947. He is convinced that vast amounts of gas are trapped at that previously impenetrable depth. He is trying to deal with temperature of 400 degrees F (204 C) and pressure of 27,000 pounds per square inch (186 MPa). Exxon gave up trying to go that deep. But he is pushing ahead. So if you hear a big explosion…

Always good to read your thoughts Bill, I learn something new every time you post on here!
I’m going to have to disagree with your views on Russia being in economic decline though. Out of the ‘BRIC’ nations i’d say they’ll be the ones to best handle the imminent global economic downturn. Here’s a few reasons why…….sovereign debt is only 11% of GDP, world’s third largest forex reserves at around $500bn, a highly-educated workforce & in general they’re very motivated strong-willed people. In the past decade their average wage & GDP per capita are up approximately 10-fold. Plus the big factor, as you stated, Russia has natural resources in abundance, which is exactly what China (& the rest of the world) needs to function! I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia & China become each other’s largest trading partners in the future.
I’d say they’re probably better equipped mentally than most nationalities when it comes to dealing with times of crisis. They’ve experienced hardcore change to their country several times…..sovereign defaults, currency collapse, war, you name it they’ve seen it, but they always manage to come back stronger.
There’s corruption in Russia I agree, but to be honest if investors want to avoid investing in countries with corruption they’ve got a pretty tough job on their hands. Russia is no more corrupt than any of the other emerging markets (or even the developed ones!), it’s just the Western media like to portay it that way with most never having experienced the country firsthand.
I’m with you on the Brazilian potential for the long-term. Just a little worried about their real estate bubble & overvalued currency in the near-term.

It seems quite obvious that the cause of all long term inflation is money printing. Things today cost 10 times the amount they did in the 1970s. Just about everything cost 10 times the amount. This sort of inflation just isn’t possible without an increase in the money supply (printing money).

@ Paolo
Thanks for your kind words. I hope you are right about Russia. I admire them. After all, they beat us into space with a far smaller economy, and we still use their RD-180 rocket engine on our Atlas V rocket that just sent a rover to Mars.
The major problem they have is that they are about to suffer a rapid population decline, unless they allow large Muslim immigration from the south. Can that work? Would it cause severs ethnic and religious strife? I have no idea. If they could get a real democracy going with honest elections, they MIGHT be able to increase their birth rate. No country can thrive with a rapidly aging, shrinking population.
Oil, gas. and all those other mineral exports will keep them from starving, but I don’t see them becoming a global economic superpower. But watch the exploration of the gigantic Russian Arctic continental shelf. Check out the size of it on Google Earth. You are looking at an area of shallow water nearly half the size of the USA. I think that area contains enormous gas deposits. Too bad it is so difficult to exploit because of the ice and remoteness. Conoco can’t even get buyers to sign up for a pipeline from Alaska for their large gas holdings up there.
China might soon get a lot of minerals that they now import from Russia, from Mongolia. Mongolia has vast deposits of coal, iron, copper etc. and it is right next door. They are building new railroads now. I’m more thankful for the Pacific Ocean every day.

Hi Bill, i guess it all depends on how we measure the success of an economy. Most of the countries we class as being the ‘global economic superpowers’ have achieved this primarily through debt creation. Now that these countries are struggling to keep up with their interest repayments (forget about them ever paying back the principal!), we’re seeing their powers dwindle on a daily basis. Total global credit market debt is now 310% of GDP! Further debt creation is never going to work. I’m not that smart but I know that won’t solve the problem!
If Russia plan ahead, keep their debt low & use their resources wisely they can ensure they have plenty of reserves in place to deal with an overall declining population whilst supporting a increasing percentage of senior citizens in the future. It’s a big ‘IF’ for any country i know. Japan is an obvious example of how not to do it. Search for Kyle Bass & his views on Japan, he sees a massive bond crisis brewing there. They had him on CNBC today talking about the European crisis, he’s one of the smartest guys i’ve ever heard when it comes to summing up the world’s economic issues, highly recommended as one to follow.
To be honest, I sometimes think a declining population might not be a bad thing for many countries considering the growing number of people who find themselves unemployed. I read last week that 46.3m Americans are on foodstamps, the highest in US history! Not a great stat for the world’s economic superpower. I’m not having a dig at you for being an American by they way! Just that these sort of figures make me think that declining populations might actually become more of a help than a hindrance. Hopefully by peaceful processes too.