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First year of a US presidency is usually bad news for the stock market

Posted on 21 September 2012 with 2 comments from readers

The first year of a US presidency is almost always a bad year for the stock market. It is a known statistical fact. Add in the looming ‘fiscal cliff’ at the start of 2013 with automatic tax rises and spending cuts then the squeeze is on for US company profits.

This is probably about as long-term in terms of forecasts as you are likely to get from the stock market commentators at Dow Jones…

Posted on 21 September 2012 Categories: Investment Gurus, US Stocks, Video Channel

2 Comments posted by readers:

Comment by Bill on Clearwood - 21 September 2012

Ray Dalio, who manages the largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, thinks Southern Europe will be in a ‘managed depression’ for the next 10 to 15 YEARS with the Southerners controlling the euro policy because they have more votes.
I can’t the public going along with that for that long, but the government has the gas and guns. He guesses that the euro will survive. But that if it doesn’t, it will be because the Northerners leave. He said ALWAYS own some gold.
People keep talking up inflation, but if Europe stays depressed for 10 years, I just can’t see inflation becomming a BIG problem anytime soon. China could see poor growth too, since Europe is their biggest trading partner. Trade with their neighbors might replace some of it, if they don’t start World War III over a few rocks out in the ocean which may, or may not, have a lot of oil under them.
As far as the stock market, right now I would guess that it will be nearly flat for most of next year, then begin to pick up in October. But ONLY if the clowns in Washington don’t screw things up again.
Should Romney win and actually fire Bernanke, watch out. His money creation is the only thing that has prevented another Great Depression. With the wrong person running the Fed right now, I think we would be living in a far different world today. And it wouldn’t be better.

Comment by ravi - 03 October 2012

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